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MAY 22,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:44 P.M. ET: 

CAN THIS BE TRUE? – FROM BREITBART:  The Republicans have taken a six-point lead over Democrats on the generic ballot in a new tracking poll from Reuters newswire service.  For the week ending May 20, Republicans are at 40.7 percent while Democrats have slipped down to 34.5 percent. The survey was of 1,139 respondents and is the first time in the 2018 cycle, dating  back to the end of May last year, that Republicans have taken a lead ahead of Democrats in the Reuters tracking poll.  A remarkable result.  Expect statements in the next few days that this poll has to be wrong, an outlier, a plant by conservative space aliens, or the work of Big Oil.

THE REVOLT CONTINUES – FROM FOX:  Another California city has joined the fight against the state's sanctuary city laws, which limit local authorities' ability to investigate illegal immigrants' status and communicate with federal immigration officials.  Carlsbad’s City Council voted 4-1 Monday to support the Trump administration's lawsuit against the state's pro-illegal immigrant sanctuary city policies, The San Diego Union-Tribune reported.  Carlsbad is located near San Diego, where the all-Republican Board of Supervisors also voted in April to support the federal government's legal action.  It's hard to gauge exactly how far this revolt will go, but there is clearly heavy discontent in much of California with the whole idea of sanctuary cities.  We hope Trump wins his lawsuit.  Ultimately, I suspect the issue of the legality of sanctuary cities will be settled by the Supreme Court.

DUMB AND DUMBER – FROM COLLEGE FIX:  Acting more like a “Secretary of Activism” than a former Secretary of Education, former Barack Obama flunky Arne Duncan tweeted on Friday that parents should keep their kids away from school … “until gun laws [are] changed.”  Duncan elucidated further on MSNBC: “Well I think we have to create attention that hasn’t existed yet and I think only that kind of creative tension can push people to confront an issue that they’d been able to run away from, to hide from, for so long.”  The Daily Caller reports Duncan added “Either this body count, this loss of life, the killing of innocent children, is acceptable or it’s not.” He “also said that he believes this is a necessary course of action ‘because everything we’ve done before has been a failure.’”   Can you imagine if kids did boycott school, forcing parents to home school, and the kids found out they learned more at home than in school?  Now that would justify a revolution.

May 22, 2018       Permalink

POSSIBLE DELAY – AT 3:46 P.M. ET:   The president said today that the June 12th summit with the leader of North Korea might be delayed.  You could almost sense the jubilation in the Democratic Party, which passionately hopes for Mr. Trump to fail.  From CNBC:

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that there's a "substantial" chance that his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "may not work out" for June.

Trump made the remark while he met with Moon Jae-in, South Korea's president, for pivotal discussions ahead of the American president's planned meeting with the North Korean dictator.

"Whether or not it happens, you'll be knowing pretty soon," Trump told reporters at the White House.

He also declined to say whether he has spoken with North Korea's leader.

The summit is scheduled for June 12 in Singapore, which is widely viewed as a neutral site. Yet doubts continue to grow about whether the meeting will actually take place. Trump's remarks Tuesday were the strongest indication yet that the summit might not happen as planned.

Last week, North Korea said it would reconsider whether to hold the meeting after abruptly canceling talks with South Korea amid joint military drills with the U.S. on the Korean Peninsula.

The communist dictatorship also took issue with Trump's national security advisor, John Bolton, who suggested using a denuclearization model similar to one used with North African country Libya. The nation's dictator at the time, Moammar Gadhafi, agreed to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for relaxed U.S. sanctions. Eventually, however, the U.S. supported a violent overthrow of Gadhafi.

North Korea called any attempt to impose a Libya-style arrangement on the country "awfully sinister." Trump has said, though, that the "Libyan model isn't a model that we have at all."

COMMENT:  The president is playing it very cool, making it clear that the June 12th date is not the end of history.  The sneering immediately began on CNN after his comments, but I think Americans understand that this will be a long process, with setbacks as well as advances.  If the meeting doesn't happen at all, expect the U.S. to ramp up military pressure and deterrent power.  That's the Trump way.  The Obama way was to collapse as quickly as possible.

May 22, 2018       Permalink

ARE YOU SHOCKED? – AT 1:31 P.M. ET:    Conservatives talk about this all the time.  Now we have some statistical proof.  From College Fix: 

Another college survey about politics and free speech is out, and it shows that the most intolerant students on campus are those aligned with the Democratic Party.

According to The Dartmouth Survey, when it comes to someone who holds different political beliefs, Dartmouth University students who identify as Democrats are nearly two times as likely not to date such a person compared to Republican students.

They’re also four times as likely not to trust such an individual, and almost six times as likely not to make friends with him/her.

Democrats also are much less likely than Republican students to study and work on course projects with those of differing ideology.

The Dartmouth notes feelings about free speech show a similar partisan divide. While 63 percent of Democrats believe free speech on campus is “very or somewhat secure,” only 21 percent of Republicans feel likewise.

COMMENT:  In truth, this isn't a new problem.  It didn't begin with Trump's election or Obama's emergence on the political scene.  Liberal Democrats have always had a kind of swagger, a sense of moral superiority, but it's gotten much worse in recent years.  And they have had a willing press behind them. 

In 1948 the Democratic Party essentially expelled the far left, led by former Vice President Henry Wallace, leaving responsible liberals in charge.  Sadly, the hard left started returning to the party in the late sixties, led by elements of the civil-rights and women's movements, and aided by "anti-war" types who were often nurtured by Marxist groups.  The intolerance of anyone who disagreed went off the charts.

Bill Clinton tried to move the party back toward the center, and it worked for a time.  But Obama went full- throttle left, and presented himself as a superior demigod.  That is where we stand now.  The party of demigods can't understand how the deplorable won the election.  Shunning them, rather than engaging with them, is entirely logical from their point of view.  Besides, some of the deplorables wear overalls rather than designer jeans.  How can one?

May 22, 2018       Permalink 

WHERE THE PRESIDENT STANDS – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  Well, that was fast.  We've been discussing the pattern wherein the president loses two or three points in the polls over weekends, but then makes up the loss, day by day, during the week.

We're seeing it again, but the "make up" has occurred with lightning speed.  Late last week Mr. Trump was at 50% in Rasmussen.  Yesterday he was at 47%.  But now, today, only a day later, look at this: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 35% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -7.

COMMENT:  There are no guarantees, but I'm hopeful that the president soars to over 50% during the week.  I am informed by secret sources that leaders of the Democratic National Committee have already ordered ulcer medicine, and commentators at CNN have already been briefed on how to disparage the polls.

We shall watch.  But one thing is clear – the Trump hatred in the media has backfired.

May 22,  2018     Permalink

MAY 21,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

THERE'S NO BUSINESS LIKE – FROM DEADLINE.COM:   It’s official. Barack and Michelle Obama have signed their production deal with Netflix.  President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama have entered into a multi-year agreement to produce films and series for Netflix, potentially including scripted series, unscripted series, docu-series, documentaries, and features,” Netflix announced via Twitter.  I can't wait to see Barack's remake of "Gone With the Wind."  In his version the Palestinians win. I've never seen a presidential couple make so much money so fast on their stay in the White House.

THE TRUTH COMES OUT – FROM COLLEGE FIX:  A professor of anthropology at the London School of Economics wanted to know which jobs are the most pointless, from the job-holders themselves.  David Graeber spent the past year asking people to “send me accounts of their most useless occupations,” in response to surveys that find a third or more of workers in rich countries “are secretly convinced their jobs are pointless,” he writes in The New York Post.  Among the 7 jobs most frequently submitted to Graeber, whose disappearance would “make no real difference,” according to the workers themselves: “Academic administrative staff”!  I'd add to that movie executive, CNN political analyst, and predictor of climate change. 

THE EGG WINS, FOR NOW – FROM REUTERS:  (Reuters Health) - People who eat an egg just about every day may have a lower risk of heart attack and stroke than individuals who don’t eat eggs at all, a large Chinese study suggests.  Researchers examined survey data on egg consumption among 461,213 adults who were 51 years old on average. When they joined the study, none had a history of heart disease. Overall, they ate an average of half an egg daily; about 9 percent of them avoided eggs altogether while 13 percent ate roughly one egg every day.  At least half of the participants were followed for nine years or more. During that time, 83,977 people developed heart disease or had a heart attack or stroke, and 9,985 died from these conditions.  Compared to people who never ate eggs, individuals who ate an average of 0.76 eggs per day were 11 percent less likely to develop cardiovascular diseases and 18 percent less likely to die from these conditions, the study found.   I grew up being taught that eggs were dangerous because of high cholesterol.  We await the next study, which will probably contradict this one.

May 21,  2018     Permalink

OUR IRAN POLICY – AT 10:51 A.M. ET:  Secretary of State Pompeo this morning laid down the Trump Doctrine for Iran.  From Fox:   

WASHINGTON –  The United States on Monday issued a steep list of demands to be included in a nuclear treaty with Iran to replace the deal scuttled by President Donald Trump and threatened "the strongest sanctions in history" if Iran doesn't change course.

Drawing sharp contrasts with the 2015 deal, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said a stronger pact should require that Iran stop enrichment of uranium, which was allowed within strict limitations under the previous deal. Iran would also have to walk away from core pillars of its foreign policy, including its involvement in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Afghanistan.

"This list may seem long to some, but it is simply a reflection of the massive scope of Iranian malign behavior," Pompeo said. "America did not create this need for changed behavior. Iran did."

Pompeo vowed that Trump's approach would ensure "Iran has no possible path to a nuclear weapon, ever." As he called for a better agreement to constrain Iran's activities, he said the U.S. would "apply unprecedented financial pressure" to bring Tehran back to the table.

"These will end up being the strongest sanctions in history by the time we are complete," Pompeo said at the conservative Heritage Foundation in his first major policy speech since taking over as top diplomat.

At the same time, Pompeo offered Iran a series of dramatic potential U.S. concessions if it agrees to make "major changes." Under a new agreement, the U.S. would be willing to lift all sanctions, restore full diplomatic and commercial ties with Iran, and even support the modernization of its economy, Pompeo said.

"It is America's hope that our labors toward peace and security will bear fruit for the long-suffering people of Iran," Pompeo said.

Still, Pompeo's list of 12 requirements included many that Iran is highly unlikely to consider. He said Iran must allow nuclear "unqualified access to all sites throughout the country," Pompeo said, alluding to military sites that were off-limits under the 2015 deal except under specific circumstances. To that end, he also said Iran must declare all previous efforts to build a nuclear weapon, reopening an issue that the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency has already deemed a closed matter.

COMMENT:  Great speech, great list.  Of course not everything will be completely attainable, and anything on that list will be tough to negotiate.  But that's why we have Trump in the White House and not Hillary Clinton or John Kerry.

Pompeo has laid down the markers.  Let the whining from the foreign-policy establishment begin.  And I can't wait for the "expert" panels on CNN.

May 21, 2018        Permalink

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THE POLLING PATTERN – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  Once again this morning we see the polling pattern regarding the president that I discussed here over the weekend.  In the Rasmussen tracker, the president will have a certain number, usually a good one, on Friday.  By Monday he will usually lose two or three points.  Then, during the week, he will make them up.

The reason?  I can't say definitely, but the Monday number, as I pointed out, reflects weekend polling, and the sample might be slightly different, or people may be concentrating on other things.  Many potential respondents might be traveling or out having a good time.

Same thing this week.  The president was at 50% toward the end of last week.  Now for today, from Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 33% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 44% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11.

Same pattern that we usually see.  We'll watch the numbers for the remainder of the week.

And something else:  Everyone knows that this president has received an unprecedented bashing from the press, but his numbers, in general, either stay the same or rise.  Please note this, from Rasmussen again:

Eighteen months after Election Day, many Democrats and their allies in Hollywood and the media continue to attack President Trump in an unprecedented fashion. But few voters think it will pay off for Trump’s opponents in the next election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters think there is too much Trump-bashing going on in the popular culture today. Thirty percent (30%) say there isn’t enough, while 21% feel the level of Trump-bashing is about right.

But only 23% say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the president because of the current level of Trump-bashing. Thirty-six percent (36%) are more likely to vote for a pro-Trump candidate. Slightly more (38%) say the ongoing attacks on the president will have no impact on their vote.

Even among Democrats, just 36% say the current Trump-bashing makes them less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the president. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Republicans are more likely to vote for such a candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, a plurality (48%) says the Trump-bashing will have no impact on their vote, but 25% are more likely to vote for a pro-Trump candidate.

COMMENT:  Note the term "likely U.S. voters."  These are the people who actually vote, and the only poll that counts is the one on election day. 

The voters are a lot smarter than the politicians and "analysts" think they are.

May 21,  2018     Permalink